Does bronze benching give a benefit in FIFA 20?

I posted on this almost 2 years ago about bronze benching.

This showed a slight shift downwards for when I used a bronze bench over when I did not. There was an argument that this did not work and that your skill rating / elo is used for match making not the team rank.

See link

https://www.fifauteam.com/bronze-benching-work/

So if Bronze benching does not match you against easier opponents why do so many players do it? This is clearly not the optimum strategy. Reducing the options on your bench to impact as a sub and needing to spend coins on squad fitness cards to keep your team fit is surely an added burden. What are the advantages?

One reason given is that handicapping exists so reducing your team rating mitigates the impact of this and often gives an advantage to the player with the lower rated squad. After each game I copied the opponents squad and viewed the team so I could identify any non-gold players on the bench. I only started this around game 600 so data set is slightly smaller

The win/loss/draw stats are below for when the team had non-gold in the starting line up/subs and when they did not

DrawLossWinTotal
All Gold62144163380
Non – Gold15502994
All Gold %16%53%31%
Non – Gold %16%38%43%

This shows that teams that use a bronze bench against me are more likely to win. I lose 53% of games against teams that use a bronze bench compared to 38% against teams that don’t.

This could be that Bronze benching is favoured by more experienced players withe better squads and therefore are harder opponents who are more likely to win. The table below shows some key information.

Average Team DateAverage Team RatingAverage of Players
All Gold2017.0585.2285.31
Non-Gold2016.4583.6085.86
Average2016.938585.421

The table shows the average team date. A team dated 2016 means that players has played every FIFA since 2016. My team date is 2019. I missed 2018 so this reset. A lower team date shows how long that player has continuously played FIFA with the same account. However experienced players may have a lower date due to creating a second account, changing consoles or for various other reasons.

The Average Team rating is the average of the rating as displayed on FIFA. The average of players is an average taken of the rating of the Goal keeper and rating of the 2 highest rated players and the 2 lowest rated players.

This shows that players who use a bronze bench have average team date that is 6 months older. Quite a small difference. However the average rating of the teams was 1.62 lower than those that did not deploy a bronze bench. The average of the players shows the teams with a bronze bench were around .5 higher than those without a bronze bench. For the all gold team there is very little difference between the average of the players and the FIFA rating. However the for the non-gold we can see the FIFA rating is around 2 pointe lower than the average of the players.

In conclusion players that use a bronze bench are slightly more experience and use a slightly higher rated team than the non-bronze benchers. The impact of a bronze bench is to reduce the overall rating of the team by 2. I am not convinced this is why I lost more games to these teams.

To explore this further I looked at how the shooting percentage changed for each 15 for these 2 samples. The shooting percentages are the % of shots on target, % shots scored and % shots on target scored.

I looked at the number of goals, Shots and Shots on Target for myself and opponent in both groups.

Below is for when the opponent used a bronze bench (Non-Gold)

Goals MEShots MeShots on Target M
0-15319969
16-30219267
31-453414696
46-603111283
61-752912183
76-904512595
Goals OpponentShots OpponentShots on Target Opponent
0-155213095
16-303712483
31-4545163115
46-602910270
61-754010576
76-904013497

Below is for the other games played.

Goals MEShots MeShots on Target M
0-15128461343
16-30141514368
31-45148562398
46-60104433296
61-75135435314
76-90150564397
Goals OpponentShots OpponentShots on Target Opponent
0-15124421284
16-30129480321
31-45166551383
46-60108410283
61-75120415295
76-90127487316

For this we can then compare the stats below is for the opponent.

% Shots on TargetDifference Gold to Non-GoldZ score % Goal Per ShotDifference Gold to Non-GoldZ score % Goal Per Shot On TargetDifference Gold to Non-GoldZ Score
0-1573.08%5.62%          1.2140.00%10.55%                      2.2554.74%11.07%          1.87
16-3066.94%0.06%          0.0129.84%2.96%                      0.6644.58%4.39%          0.72
31-4570.55%1.04%          0.2527.61%-2.52%–                    0.6239.13%-4.21%–        0.80
46-6068.63%-0.40%–        0.0828.43%2.09%                      0.4341.43%3.27%          0.50
61-7572.38%1.30%          0.2638.10%9.18%                      1.8252.63%11.95%          1.88
76-9072.39%7.50%          1.6329.85%3.77%                      0.8741.24%1.05%          0.18

If we look at the date in the first 15 minutes we can see the opponent is shooting % is 73.08% an increase of 5.62% when compared to non- bronze bench teams. The % shots scored is 40% an increase of 10.55% as compared to non- bronze bench teams and goals per shots on target is 54.74% an increase of 11.07% as compared to non-bronze bench teams.

The z score for the increase of % goals per shots was 1.87 which is 98.27% it can be concluded that bronze bench teams are more likely to score from a shot in the first 15 minutes than non-bronze bench teams.

The z score for the increase of % goals per shots was 2.25 which is 96.95% it can be concluded that bronze bench teams are more likely to score from a shot on target in the first 15 minutes than non-bronze bench teams.

If we look at the date in the 61st to 75th minutes we can see the opponent is shooting % is 72.38% an increase of 1.30% when compared to non- bronze bench teams. The % shots scored is 38.10% an increase of 9.18% as compared to non- bronze bench teams and goals per shots on target is 52.63% an increase of 11.98% as compared to non-bronze bench teams.

The z score for the increase of % goals per shots was 1.82 which is 96.57% it can be concluded that bronze bench teams are more likely to score from a shot in the 61st to 75th minutes than non-bronze bench teams.

The z score for the increase of % goals per shots was 1.88 which is 96.97% it can be concluded that bronze bench teams are more likely to score from a shot on target in the 61st to 75th minutes than non-bronze bench teams.

In conclusion where my opponent uses a bronze bench there are two 15 minutes period where shots are more likely to be scored as compared to non-bronze bench teams. In the first 15 minutes and in the 61st to 75th Minutes. Those differences are at a level to be statically significant.

Below is the same analysis for myself.

% Shots on TargetDifference Gold to Non-GoldZ scoreGoal Per ShotDifference Gold to Non-GoldZ scoreGoal Per Shot On TargetDifference Gold to Non-GoldZ Score
0-1569.70%-4.71%–        0.9631.31%3.55%                      0.7144.93%7.61%          1.18
16-3072.83%1.23%          0.2422.83%-4.61%–                    0.9231.34%-6.97%–        1.09
31-4565.75%-5.07%–        1.1923.29%-3.05%–                    0.7535.42%-1.77%–        0.32
46-6074.11%5.75%          1.1827.68%3.66%                      0.8037.35%2.21%          0.37
61-7568.60%-3.59%–        0.7723.97%-7.07%–                    1.5134.94%-8.05%–        1.33
76-9076.00%5.61%          1.2636.00%9.40%                      2.1147.37%9.59%          1.72

There a periods where there a shifts in the scoring percentages up and down however apart from the last 15 minutes non are at a statistically significant level.

If we look at the date in the last 15 minutes we can see my shooting is shooting % is 76.00% an increase of 5.61% when compared to non- bronze bench teams. The % shots scored is 36.00% an increase of 9.40% as compared to non- bronze bench teams and goals per shots on target is 47.37% an increase of 9.59% as compared to non-bronze bench teams.

The z score for the increase of % goals per shots was 2.11 which is 96.57% it can be concluded that bronze bench teams are more likely to score from a shot in the last 15 minutes than non-bronze bench teams.

The z score for the increase of % goals per shots was 1.72 which is 96.97% it can be concluded that bronze bench teams are more likely to score from a shot on target in the last 15 minutes than non-bronze bench teams.

These statistics show the word momentum is an apt description of how FIFA 20 game play shifts to make it easier or harder to score.

I also calculated the number of goals, shots and shots on target per 15 minutes for each time slot. I then compared the percentage difference for bronze bench teams and non- bronze bench teams.

The table below shows this for my opponent.

Change in Goals per 15 minutesChange in Shots per 15 minutesChange in Shots on Target per 15 minutes
0-1539%18%24%
16-3011%1%1%
31-456%14%15%
46-605%-2%-3%
61-7524%-1%1%
76-9019%7%17%

In the first 15 minutes of the game we can see the number of goals, shots and shots on target is much increased as compared to the non-bronze benching teams. The number of shots and shots on targets returns to the same level in the next 15 minutes however the number of goals scored is higher. In the last 15 minutes of the 1st half shots and shots on targets increases.

The first half shows an a small difference between the two samples. The 61st to 75th Minutes shows minimal difference in the number of shots and shots on target however a big increase in the goals scored. This reflects the increase in shots scored as previously noted. The last 15 minutes has an increase in goals scored and shots on target.

In conclusion teams that use a bronze bench perform extremely well early in the game and late in the game.

I repeated the same for my performance in these games. The table below shows the difference in the number of goals, shots and shots on target per 15 minutes for each time slot. For bronze bench teams to non- bronze bench teams.

Change in Goals per 15 minutesChange in Shots per 15 minutesChange in Shots on Target per 15 minutes
0-15-5%-19%-27%
16-30-71%-42%-40%
31-45-11%2%-6%
46-6015%2%9%
61-75-19%8%4%
76-9015%-15%-6%

The first 15 minutes my performance was worse against bronze bench teams with fewer 19% fewer shots and 27% fewer shots on target. In the next 15 minutes it got worse with 42 fewer shots and 40% fewer shots on target. In the last 15 minutes of the half there was some improvement with the number of shots and shots on target returning to similar levels however goals scored still 11% lower. Overall when i face a team with a bronze bench the first half on average is a write of in terms of performance.

The second half starts with shots 2% better higher than when facing a non-bronce bench team. Shots on target is 9% higher and goals scored is 15% higher. However in the 61st to 75th minutes the goals scored is 19% lower against a bronze benching team however the number of shots and shots on target is better than against the non-bronze benching teams.

The last 15 minutes shows a 15% increase in goals scored on a 15% reduction on shots. The previous data showed a big increase in my efficiency in front of goal.

In conclusion against bronze benching teams my performance is poor in the first half with some improvement in the second half. My opponent is likely to start fast and take an early lead and shows another big improvement in the middle of the second half. The games show a clear difference in performance at different times for both myself and my opponent or momentum swings in the game. These differences at time can be large and for the % shots scored and an shots on target scored are large enough to be statistically significant.

When I say I believe in momentum within the games because I can feel a change in game play. It is because when I play FIFA 20 their is a change in game play which can be measured and quantified. If you play me then use a bronze bench and I will play like shot.

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