For each game I looked at when the score changed and who scored. I then produced a flow diagram showing the number of games were the score changed. The score is at each stage and underneath in brackets the number of games. The arrows show the number of times the scored changed to the next stage.
At 0-0 the score remained unchanged 21 times. So ended without either team scoring.
I scored first in 520 games and my opponent in 550 games. This fairly even with the opposition slightly more likely more likely to score first.
When My opponent scored first I scored the next goal in 264 Games and the opponent in 259 games. I was more likely to gain a 2 goal advantage as only 210 games returned to 1 – 1 as compared to 265 for my opponent.
For games where the score was 0 – 2. In 26 games the score was unchanged, I scored next in 107 games and my opponent in 125 games. In these games my opponent was slightly more likely to score next. If we consider this in context at 2 behind my opponent is likely to be better and you would expect them to be more likely to score next.
At 0 – 3, 24 games ended with the score unchanged. I scored next in 50 games and the opponent in 51 games. This is an interesting result as by scoring 3 unanswered goals it would be fair to say there is a clear skill gap between myself and my opponent. It would be expected the better player would score next in more games. As both teams scored next an equal amount this is unexpected.
At 1 -3, 49 games ended with the score unchanged. I scored next in 72 games and the opponent in 68. This i an even chance of both players scoring next. At this score it would be fair to say there is a clear skill gap between myself and my opponent. It would be expected the other player would score next more often. To have the number of goals to be even is unexpected.
At 2 – 3, 67 games ended with the score unchanged. I scored in 38 and my opponent scored in 54. So one more goal for me makes it less likely I will score the next goal than at 1 – 3. In the 72 games where the previous score had been 1 – 3, 33 ended with the score unchanged, I scored in 15 and the opponent scored in 24 At 1 – 3 both teams have a roughly equal chance of scoring next. However when the scores move to 2-3. The MOMENTUM swings returns back to player in the lead with them scoring more goals at a ratio of 1:1.6.
At 0 – 4, 14 games ended with the score unchanged. I scored next in 19 games and the opponent in 18. Having scored 4 unanswered goals I have been clearly been outplayed. For the next goal to be even between both players would represent a shift in momentum within the game. This is a very unexpected result.
At 1 -4, 36 games ended with the score unchanged. I scored next in 26 games and the opponent in 26. This is a clear shift from my opponent to myself. Again it would be fair to say there is a clear skill gap between myself and my opponent. It would be expected the better player would score next. To have an both teams scoring the same amount of goals would be unexpected.
At 2 – 4, 44 games ended with the score unchanged. I scored in 13 and my opponent scored in 23. At 1 – 4 the number of times each team scored was even. However has 2 – 4 the winning team was much more likely to win at a ration of 1:1.7
In conclusion. When I was behind their would appear to be an equal chance of either team scoring. When the scores returned to 2 – 3 however the opponent was again much more likely to score.
When losing 3-0, 4-0, 3-1 and 4-1 both teams had an equal chance of scoring. However scoring another goal at 2-3 and 2 – 4 meant the opponent was more likely to score outscoring me 1 to 1.6 and 1 to 1.7 respectively . This would lead me to conclude FIFA 20 includes some form of rubber banding to make games where their is a clear skill gap closer.
For these games I always played the full 90 minutes with no change of tactics. unfortunately when I looked at games where I had the same scores in my favour time and again my opponent would quit making that side of the diagram less reliable.